welcome back to "morning joe." mika has left us. she is on her way back to new york for the kolbert report. she's going to be on there tonight. willie, you know what i learned today? >> what's that? >> that you'll be very excited since you always go home and watch oprah with your slippers and eat your bonbons. >> sure. >> oprah's e.p. sherry, big "morning joe" fan, she dropped by to say hi to us. >> excellent. we're fans right back. >> exactly. what did you learn today? >> i learned that it can be overwhelming in a showcase showdown when you're presented with not only a dodge, but also a trip to minneapolis, as this woman proved. by the way, she won the

showcase. >> well, of course, the thing is, donny deutsch, it's not just minneapolis. i mean, my god, you got st. paul right across the river. i'm going to have a hard time staying on my feet with that staring in my face. what did you learn today, donny? >> i learned about your showering habits and we need to talk. >> lack tlohereof. >> a bit french. we'll see you tomorrow in new york city. and of course, thursday we'll be in charleston. h hey, willie, if it's way too early, what time is it? >> it's "morning joe." right now it's time for "the daily rundown" with chuck and savannah. one day before the state of the union, the president unveils a plan to show he is serious about the deficit. >> but a big portion of that speech is still largely unwritten. what can he say about health care with it all still hanging by a thread. it's january 26, 2010. i'm chuck todd. >> good morning, everyone. i'm savannah guthrie. we'll get right to the rundown and start with the white house, where the president one day before the state of the union is

trying to make clear, he's making a big push to win back independents. the white house is announcing a three-year spending freeze, something directly aimed t all those independents who say the deficit is at the top of their list. >> the freeze is for nonsecurity discretionary spending. the administration says it would save $250 billion over ten years. now, it's already receiving disdain from the left and -- >> and the right too. >> and the right. conservatives are saying, oh, this is a phony bill, he did all the spending already and now he wants to stop spending. the left is saying, you know, this is an overreaction to massachusetts, you're overreacting. and guess what, you're not going to get a single republican vote. and the white house kind of expected this, but i don't think they expected the level of intensity, particularly from the left, of criticism. >> and senio aides say it may be the tip of the iceberg to all that conservative criticism, but you have to start somewhere. and, obviously, the president really wants to hit these things hard in the state of the union, because so many people put government spending at the top of their list. >> it is. it was higher than health care,

in our polls. that does say something and there are a lot of people that are concerned about it. as the state of the union looms tomorrow night, democrats are scrambling for a solution to the health care mess. house speaker nancy pelosi and senate majority leader harry reid are working overtime as the president searches for votes for a fix-it bill in washington. luke russert covers capitol hill for us. so outline where we are in these health care negotiations and what the time line is and what scenarios are we expecting. >> well, chuck, right now it is the road to 218. that's the number of votes nancy pelosi has to find in the house in order to pass health care reform. here's what she has to do. she has to get democrats to sign on to approving this reconciliation bill, this fix-it bill that would include things like an extension in the medicare payroll tax. it would have the union excise tax, not going into effect until 2018. it would include -- it would get rid of the cornhusker kickback, all those compromises we're

doing with ping-pong between the house and the senate bills, it would be in one bill and it would have to pass the house first. after the house would pass that bill, they then would pass the senate bill and then obama would have his majoring legislative victory and have health care reform. can they get there? yes. is it very difficult? yes. how does she have to get there? she has to get to 218. one thing that does not come up in this bill, this reconciliation bill, chuck, is abortion. bart stupak says he will not support the nelson language for abortion, which is in the senate bill. he's a vote. other pro-life democrats will be off that vote. she has to plug those holes, most likely with blue dogs that she allowed to walk away the first time. may not be so easy to get them to come aboard this time, chuck. >> that's right, luke. and one stay before the state of the union, it's entirely clear that the road to getting health care done has not been set out at all. so we'll see how this all turns out. luke russert on the hill this morning for us, thanks. good news for taxpayers, from what some people see is a

pretty unlikely place, gm has announced it will pay back the rest of its debt to the government, $5.7 billion in t.a.r.p. money by june of this year. cnbc's phil lebeau covers the auto industry for us. phil, this was a shocker for a lot of folks in washington. >> i think so. i think a lot of people thought when general motors took this bailout loan from t.a.r.p. at the end of coming out of bankruptcy, a lot of people said you don't have to repay it until 2015. we'll see if gm can get there by 2015. but keep in mind, this is a company that's in far better financial shape than it was when it came out of bankruptcy. it's costs have been cut dramatically. things are starting to improve in terms of sales, gradually. and as a result, general motors feels like it's in a position now that it can pay back this loan, the remaining $5.7 billion by june. and once that happens, it will no longer owe the government. now, keep in mind, guys, the government still owns 61% of general motors. so when this company goes public, at some point later this year or next year, gm will have

61% of that stock. guys, that's the latest. back to you. >> phil. we shall see. just getting that money back is a start for some in the administration. they would love to de-tether themselves from general motors, at least before the 2012 elections. phil lebeau covering the auto industry for us, thank you. you would have thought this was already illegal, was this morning the obama administration will announce a federal ban on bus and truck drivers texting while driving. tom costello covers a lot of transportation issues for us. so how was this not illegal, and why is it that the federal -- if it wasn't before, how the federal government actually have the authority to do this? >> good question. what the federal government is saying commercial truck drivers and bus drivers can no longer text while driving. this is just really starting to gain momentum across the country. this national surge saying, this is just inherently unsafe, folks. and all the research is pointing to that. and so we've now got 19 states and d.c., only 19 states and d.c., banning texting while driving, believe it or not.

but now we've got senator schumer on the hill who wants to say, if you, as a state, don't ba ban texting while drive, we will withhold 25% of your highway funds. >> the power of the purse. >> that's yet to happen, but today the department of transportation says we're using the authority we already have to govern commercial vehicles and buses on the roads and saying, there will be no texting while driving. listen to these numbers. last year in 2008, 2008, 28% of all accidents were thought to be the result of distracted driving. they think as many as 6,000 dead, 500,000 injuries. they want to do something about this. >> and you cover transportation. where do you see this going? i mean, texting seems so obvious, it's so dangerous to do it while you're driving. but come on, even talking on the phone really distracts people. is that where this is all headed? >> that's critical, what you just said. because all the research indicates, it doesn't matter if it's a handheld or a hands-free device, it's the distracted brain that's the problem. and so what they are now moving for is a ban on texting.

i think you're going to get that very quickly in virtually every state. you'll probably, eventually, get to a ban, right now, six states and d.c. ban handheld devices while driving. only six states. i think, eventually, you'll get every state banning handheld devices. i think it's going to be a tough climb to ban all cell phone use, period, which is what -- >> especially because car companies make it -- >> the blue tooth integrated. i know. >> every car now, it's not just high-end, kias, all sorts of things. >> and all the research indicates that's not good enough. it's the distracted brain that's the problem. i think it's going to be a tough -- >> lots of things distract the brain, though, and where do you drain the line? >> exactly. your cd player, whatever the case is. >> big brother. thanks, tom. to haiti now and a big international push to rebuild that country. leaders in an emergency meeting say haiti is facing at least a ten-year rebuilding effort, but haiti's history of mismanaging funds has some concern about making a big cash commitment. nbc's ron allen again for us in port-au-prince this morning. ron, good morning. >> reporter: good morning,

savannah. there are a lot of concerns about haiti's government. it's not just mismanagement of funds, it's corruption, it's whether they have the strength to lead this rebuilding effort. there are concerns about the government's integrity, well before the earthquake, as you know. now people are wondering where the government is. the president here has not addressed this nation publicly. he handed the cassette to a radio station a couple days after the quake and that played -- that was his message to the people. yesterday at that donor conference, the government asked for some $3 billion, a lot of money. the government said it's going to spend about $2 billion of that on shelter. they're trying to create camps with fortified housing on the outskirts of the capital, where hundreds of thousands of people can live. the other $1 billion or so is going to go to rebuild the government buildings and on infrastructure projects to improve the airports here, the sea port here, which is a vital link to the outside world, as well as roads and sewers and all kinds of things that were damaged by the quake. now we're in the phase where you could think of it as the hard

part. the search for survivors is over. all those heartwarming stories are not likely to happen anymore. it's now the nitty-gritty hard work of trying to rebuild this country devastated by this earthquake. back to you guys. >> thanks very much, ron, covering the haiti situation for us in port-au-prince. still to come on "the daily rundown," president obama calls for a three-year spending freeze to drive down the deficit. how can he convince congress to play along? plus, is john mccain so worried about his primary challenge that he's willing to drop the maverick label? but first, a look ahead at the president's schedule today. it is all closed doors meetings. that tells you he's probably working on the state of the union furiously and doing some other negotiating. more wings ! no way he'll be in first thing tomorrow. only alka-seltzer relieves your upset stomach, heartburn, indigestion and headache...

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the state of the union is one day away, but we're getting a preview of where the president is headed. he'll be working hard to show his fiscal rectitude. the white house has already unveiled its plan to freeze nearly $500 billion in spending for the next few years. austan goolsbee is a member of the president's counsel of economic advisers. austan, as we saw last night, when your colleague, jared bernstein, went on msnbc last night, there are a lot of progressives on the left that think this is the white house kowtowing a little bit to the right. and then you have conservatives who say this is nothing more than something you're doing for show and they don't believe you after you've done all this spending over the last year. so which is it?

why is this a serious proposal in the mind of the white house? >> well, first, i hope you guys are going to treat me a little nicer than they treated poor jared. but the point of this announcement is to say, and it's critical that we first clarify the facts of what it is. it's not a freeze of every individual program. it's an overall freeze on the level of spending. so in this nondefense discretionary spending, the total will not exceed the amount that it is now. but we can still make choices over what are the priorities, and we can still minimize things that are duplicative or not working. so that's critically important. because you saw the president and the administration yesterday outlining some of the middle class tax relief things for people, say, doubling the child care tax credit or tax assistance for people who are taking care of a parent or a sick relative. those thing are going to be in the budget.

the budget's coming out on monday. but we're going to fix in the budget for three years the amount of spending, so we're going to make these choices. i think we've got to do that. that's different than the short run emergency. in the short run emergency, we know we've got to deal with that problem. that's why we have the stimulus. when testimony are the republic charge -- >> hey, austan? >> yeah. >> let me throw in here. one other criticism i've heard, this wouldn't take effect until october. you're about to pass in the senate another about $80 billion jobs program, so this plan is the equivalent of closing the barn door after the horse is already out. what's your response to that? >> savannah, i don't agree with that. that's why what i was saying is, if your mom gets sick, you've got to pay for that emergency. if you have less money left over, you've got to tighten the belt for the rest of your budget. and what we're seeing here is, you don't tighten the belt in the middle of a recession. this is for fiscal year 2011.

in the short run, we've got to have jobs. and the president knows that and everyone knows that. >> let me ask you about that, austan, though. because it's true that aside from entitlements, one of the best ways to get that deficit down would be a return to full employment, tax revenues would go up, and that would take a chunk out of the deficit. but yesterday the president was out touting these new middle class relievers, but do not create jobs. is it worth spending on items like this that might make the middle class feel better, which is good, but what would really make them feel better are some job creators. >> well, now, hold on. take the child care tax credit. a big reason why people can't go to work, they've got to take care of their kid. if you can't afford to pay for child care, you've got a major employment problem. so that's highly tied to the job market. in this, we need relief for people that are really hurting. we need, also, just targeted

jobs package. and you've seen the president outline those. those are two different parts of the budget. one is the immediate short run aspect. the other, the child care tax credit, that stuff is going to be in the budget that this discretionary freeze is going to apply to. so you will see in the budget, when we're propose -- if anything's going up, something else has got to go down. that's what this freeze is going to put in place. >> you must have an idea of something that you guys are overspending on that needs to go down. can you give us a couple of examples of something that is going to see, frankly, a spending cut or two? because you've eliminated defense, you've eliminated entitlements. give me an example of something that we're going to see a couple of cuts in that will be real cuts, that people would actually be able to understand. >> i can give you several examples. i don't want to give away exactly what's going to come out in the budget on monday, but recall, last year, they put out an entire document called

terminations and reductions. there were 121 different programs that were cut, and it proposed $17 billion just in a single year. take the f-22 fighter. you saw secretary of defense gates, you saw -- >> i understand that, but you just said, you're going to not touch the defense budget. what are some of these nondiscretionary, nondefense items? >> now, hold on. cutting the defense budget is a cut. this is a freeze on nondefense. and what i'm saying is, there will be a terminations and reductions volume, just like the one there was last year that had $17 billion of cuts in 121 different programs. there will be a similar one of those coming out on monday that is going to propose hundreds of cuts. >> all right. austan goolsbee, it's going to be an interesting couple of weeks between the state of the union and the budget. i'm sure we're going to see you on our air quite a bit. thanks very much. coming up, a picasso is

priceless no more. just how much value is lost when you rip a masterpiece? and in today's 2010, sparks fly when the democrats vying to become illinois's next governor nearly come to blows in their final debate. but first, the proposed budget freeze means you're going to hear this phrase a lot, discretionary spending. it's washington speak for the spending set by annual appropriations made by decisions of congress. it's quote/unquote optional spending as opposed to mandatory funding for entitlement programs. okay, we know that was a lot. simply put, nondiscretionary spending is what congress gets to spend. it's the money they get to appropriate. it's the quote/unquote what some people say is pork and what other people say is the bacon that you bring home to your constituents. either way -- >> it's washington speak. >> it's washington speak and congress is going to fight this hard, because it takes away their power. this is "the daily rundown," only on msnbc. somewhere in america... there's a home by the sea powered by the wind on the plains.

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9:23 on the east coast, 6:23 on the west. in iraq, a suicide bomber drove into a police crime lab in baghdad, killing 18 and leaving dozens of others injured. this after coordinated suicide attacks yesterday left 41 people dead. investigators say the pilot of an ethiopian airliner that crashed off the lebanese coast was flying in an unauthorized direction. officials say the pilot made a strange and fast turn after being told to correct his flight path. great britain says it's out of its deepest recession since the 1930s and that growth helped keep unemployment at 7.8%. drivers in the midwest are fighting whiteout conditions this morning. high winds are causing shutdowns on roads and chunks of major interstates in south dakota. and pernell roberts maybe best known as adam, the eldest cartwright son on "bonanza" died

yesterday in malibu. roberts was no one-hit wonder, finding younger success as trapper john m.d. that's the latest news. >> trapper john m.d. is the most successful spin-off of "m.a.s.h.". >> chuck full of facts. >> always. in one week, next tuesday, illinois officially kicks off the 2010 campaign season with its groundhog day primary. last night, the democrats running for governor, pat quinn, the appointed governor and dan lineza, comptroller, met in their final debate as a new markets share poll shows the two neck and neck, 44/40. this race has been nasty. accusations of incompetence and corruption are flying back and forth. check out this ad hynes has been running against quinn. he dug up video of washington, saying hiring quinn was his greatest mistake in governing.

>> i was nuts to do it. i must have been blind or staggering. i would never appoint pat quinn to do anything. pat quinn is a totally and completely undisciplined individual. >> now quinn is ruining our state's finances. illinois can do better. >> wow. and while pat quinn blamed dan hynes for the desecration of bodies at the historically african-american cemetery the burr oaks cemetery south of chicago. listen. >> hundreds of bodies dug up, the graves resold, grieving families unsure where their loved ones are buried. it was dan hynes' job to regulate our cemeteries, but despite 22 complaints about burr oak, he did nothing. >> pretty transparent push by both democrats fighting for that african-american vote, and the two almost broke into a fistfight last night at their debate. >> i think your ad, where you don't put your picture on it, is a crystal-clear example of politicians who want to use race and racial division and meanness

to advance your personal cause. >> he acts like he's a victim and he's always on the up and up and always on the positive. he's run millions of dollars in negative ads against me as well. you just don't see me whining about it. >> as you know, both democrats are trying to replace rod blagojevich, who was, of course, the controversial governor that got kicked out of office or was about to get kicked out of office and he finally quick. if the hynes victory over quinn, you want to talk about all the upheaval happening with independents and in conservative primary voters and republican primary, that shows you that there's a lot of tum ult in the democratic electorate in illinois. and more bad news for that one-time rising republican star, charlie crist. in his bid for the u.s. senate, he's trailing upstart conservative challenger, marco rubio, 47-44. seven months ago quinnipiac had rubio trailing crist by 24

points. at this rate, rubio might be ahead by double digits in the summer. this primary has a long way to go. it's not until august 24th, but how does crist switch this momentum without going ultra, ultranegative? by the way, both republicans are up on the likely democratic nominee in this race, congressman kendrick meek. crist has him -- is up on him 48-36 and rubio beats him 44-35. one of the reasons why it may be tough for any democratic nominee right now in florida. that same poll shows president obama's job rating upside down. 49% disapprove, 45% approve. he and the vice president are traveling to florida on thursday. critical swing state, we know, in presidential elections. critical swing state in these midterms, big governor's race. big senate race. i expect you're going to see president obama making a lot of trips to florida, whether the democrats down there want him or not, because he's got to sew up his own political fortunes in

that state. and if it's tuesday, somebody's voting somewhere. that somewhere today is in oregon. oregon becomes the first state to actually vote on a, quote, millionaire's tax. it targets wealthy families and individuals. a democratic agenda item put to the test one week after the massachusetts special election upset. this election also brings the state's $10 minimum corporate tax into question. that minimum rate hasn't changed in 79 years. a tax hike could raise $225 million for that state budget coffers. secretary of state kate brown estimates it's 62 to 64% of registered voters will submit ballots. remember, it's a typical turnout for a male in an election in oregon. i have to tell you, savannah, this is a serious special election for folks to follow. it is rare that these initiatives that call for tax increases actually pass out west, particularly, you know this up in arizona, oregon, washington state, california, they're usually very anti-tax. be fascinated to see where things stand tonight.

>> and taxing the wealthy is an article of faith in democrat politics. we'll see what they think of it there. coming up, how does the president convince any democrat to run if he can't talk the vice president's son into a campaign? plus, liberals give a chilly reception to the budget freeze plan. wait until you see this moment on rachel maddow's show last night. but first, today's trivia question from the almanac of american politics. representative mike castle of delaware, the republican running for senate who got a big boost when beau biden decided not to run, he is a direct descendent of which founding father? we'll tell you next on "the daily rundown" right here on msnbc. boss: hey, those gecko ringtones you put on our website are wonderful.

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when it comes to things you care about, leave nothing to chance travelers. insurance for auto, home and business. bottom of the hour. let's take a look at the top reads and clicks that will drive the news of the day. front page of "the new york

times" today, it has obtained the full classified cable that the u.s. ambassador to afghanistan sent just as the president was weighs whether to send more troops to that country. those cables show ambassador karl eikenberry was even more worried than previously thought about karzai's leadership. he wrote, "sending additional forces will delay the day when afghans take over and make it difficult if not impossible to bring our people home on a reasonable timetable." >> and white house chief of staff rahm emanuel is under fire on the front page of t"the wall street journal". the paper writes that the president's liberal backers are blaming the chief of staff from a long list of grievances from gitmo to health care. they're directing their anger less at president obama than at rahm emanuel. he says he's the obstacle to the changes they thought mr. obama's election would make. and look at this full page ad moveon is running in "usa today." if people read newspapers in their hard copy form, this might be effective. i don't know if the white house even gets hard copies of

newspapers anymore. still, it shows you where this is going. >> they had some problems. we'll move on -- we should mention before we finish here that first read, you've got to check it out. we update it all day long. firstread.msnbc.com. >> and those clicks are very, very free. moving on, the state of the union is going to be a big moment for president obama. he's got to figure out how to quote/unquote reset in a way that doesn't anger liberals and at the same time pleases independents. what's fascinating is that it's actually at a similar moment that we've seen other presidents at in the first year of their presidencies. one was ronald reagan. it is something that the reagan administration -- excuse me, the obama administration loves to talk about. and our next guest, carl cannon, a long-term white house reporter is now at politics daily. his father, lou cannon, has probably written some of the more definitive biographies of ronald reagan. and you tackled this in a column the other day about this sort of parallel between where obama stands here in 2010 and where

ronald reagan stood in 1982. tell us about it. >> well, it's funny, chuck. my dad lives in california and i'm his editor. as a contributor to politics daily, we have no awkward moments, because we wrote a book together comparing reagan to bush. i wrote a piece, he was saying i want to do a piece for you. he said, all right, but i have to write a piece today and we'll talk tomorrow. it turns out our pieces complemented each other as though we had talked for hours. i wrote about, my piece was, where do you expect the president to be? she's just dipped below 50% approval rating. the unemployment rate's 10%, we have two wars that are stalled, the -- we've been in a recession the whole time he's been president. where do you expect the guy to be? that was my column. sort of gentle caution to the democrats not to panic. and that that was logical. then my dad follows up with his piece, which was mentioned on "meet the press," which is going back to reagan's first year. and he has this wonderful s.e . section in it, reagan would say,

stay the course. this became a colllichcliche. the white house press reporters would chant, stay the course, along with reagan. but he did stay the course. >> that raises a question, though. because i think people had a very clear sense of where reagan stood. strong national defense, smaller government, cut taxes. do you think there are some defining themes that the president, president obama, also has? i mean, do you think peecople really know where he stands and could sum it up in a sentence or less? >> savannah, that's a good point and a critique you hear of this president from both the left and the right. peggy noonan said that on "meet the press" and moveon.org is saying that now. we elected a liberal president and where is that guy? but i think stay the course is a broader term than that. i mean, i don't give advice to presidents and they wouldn't listen to me if i did, but stay the course means, be yourself. the other phrase from that area was, you know, let reagan be reagan. this was used by so-called

pragmatists in the white house. people who were getting the same grief rahm is getting now to let reagan be his inner-conservative self. but reagan was telling his people, i've got to get me a deal. reagan was a very pragmatic president. so if you think of stay the course in a broader way, i don't think president obama has to be an ideologue. >> the stay the course mantra back then was, stick to this program i'm on, it's going to pay dividends. but obama has something different to deal with that reagan didn't. reagan had a democratic congress to beat up on whenever he needed that boogiemen. he had to work with them, but he was able to look ant-washington. how does obama walk that line? >> if you think it hurts the president to have a party of his, i don't think he'll have to worry about that too much longer. >> i've had some in the white house say, the lemonade out of that lemon is it would make

their 2011 -- >> he will campaign hard for democrats and he doesn't want to lose the congress. but we've had examples, happened to eisenhower, happened to bill clinton. in the first two years, the congress went the other way and it gave them someone to be a counterpuncher to, it gave them something to pivot off of. and it actually helped that president. obama could recover either way. >> carl cannon, thank you so much. hope you'll come back. good to talk to you this morning. >> be sure to stay with msnbc for special coverage of president obama's state of the union address, that's this wednesday at 9:00 p.m. with analysis immediately following right here on msnbc. okay. let's do our trivia answer. actually -- yeah, carl, we like put our guests on the spot. representative mike castle of delaware, got a big boost when beau biden said he wasn't going to run, is a direct descendent of which founding fathers? >> that's a toughy. none of the virginians. >> think of the state next door. maybe a lightbulb will go off in your head. >> ben franklin!

>> really? >> i tried to -- >> a lightbulb! >> yeah. >> next time we'll hit him over the head with an actual sledgehammer. now time for our morning mash. the president's response when asked about the latest audiotape from osama bin laden was pretty striking this morning. he basically said the al qaeda leader is pretty weak. >> bin laden's sending out a tape, trying to take credit for a nigerian student who engaged in a failed bombing attempt, is an indication of how weakened he is, because this is not something necessarily directed by him. >> president obama also told diane sawyer that he would rather be a really good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president. something we've heard him say out at town halls and the like before. >> all first-term presidents claim that. >> senator john mccain said today that he supports the president's plans to freeze discretionary nonsecurity

spending for the next three years. >> we need to do it. i think it's important. and i'll support it. but the president's going to have to also promise to veto bills that are laden with pork barrel spending. >> okay. but the idea of a spending freeze in the midst of an economic downturn did not sit well with msnbc's rachel maddow. she laid into the vice president's chief economist, jared bernstein, on her show last night. >> you guys are not only not talking about a second stimulus, you're talking about trying to cut $250 billion out of the budget. >> well, first off -- >> i have to tell you, it sounds completely, completely insane. >> there's going to be no stupid hooverism around here, to use your very apt term. spending programs, in order to generate the kind of job growth that we need to offset this -- the impact of what was the deepest recession since the great depression generally will fall outside of this freeze. >> maddow told bernstein that a spending freeze is like trying

to put out a fire by pouring gasoline on it. so this goes to what we were talking about earlier. the left is unhappy and says, you're kowtowing almost too much, overreacting to some of the conservative criticism and the right, you know, as you see john mccain there, conservative, they're not ready to give this president yet an inch on this. >> no. and the spending freeze has really brought out the best metaphors from everybody. on the conservative side, they say it's like going on a diet after a pie-eating contest. >> the barn door, the fire. >> a lot of cliches out today. and coming up, the 2010 ground guy. beau said no. who else isn't up for it? we're going to go in the room with former republican congressional committee chairman, tom davis and democratic pollster, jeff guerin. plus, comedian tracy uhlman exposes the seedy underbelly of the msnbc makeup room, sort of. >> please, not too much powder blue eye shadow. the last makeup artist made me look like joan van ark.

>> hello, rachel. >> oh, arianna. >> ow! >> that's just an average time in the msnbc room. but first, the white house soup of the day. >> sweet potato. >> you're watching "the daily rundown" on msnbc. i have to say, i've never had sweet potato soup. hot waffles. the smell of warm maple syrup. you know the smell after it rains. that's it. announcer: whatever scents fill your household, tidy cats scoop neutralizes the odors of multiple cats. tidy cats scoop. keep home smelling like home.

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the daily flashback, on this day in 1838, the nation's first prohibition law passed. it became a misdemeanor to sell alcoholic beverages in taverns and stores in the state of tennessee, which incidentally is also the home of jack daniels. >> naturally. >> you know democrats might actually care for a drink or two about now. more bad news for the party as beau biden, the vice president's son, announced he won't run for his father's old delaware senate seat. >> still a long shot for republicans to reclaim the house or the senate this fall, but the odds are better than they were just a few weeks ago. former virginia congressman toms davis, and jeff guerin,

democratic pollster, whose firm is the democratic half of the nbc/"wall street journal" -- >> we actually did that tennessee prohibition campaign. >> successful, it was democrats versus democrats there. jeff, i start with you, how does the president talk to a wavering senator or congressman that's sitting on the fence. how does he talk this person into running this fall when the son of the vice president won't even do it? is this that kind of blow that beau biden delivered? >> well, i'm not sure it's a political argument, frankly. i think it is an argument about, it's really what senator snowe said, when history calls, history calls. and in thinking about the state of the union speech, the audience inside that chamber is as important to president obama as the people who are watching on tv. when he gave the health care speech, it hasn't come to a happy ending yet. he moved democrats in that chamber to press forward when they were in a moment of doubt.

so i think it is partly that, that they're here to do important things to make the country work again. but i think the -- i think what democrats want to hear from the president is that he's going to provide support not just in terms of campaigning and activity, but that there'll be a narrative out there, a national narrative about this election in terms of framing the choice between democrats and republicans. >> democrats aren't seeing that right now? >> they are not. and i think there's somewhat an understanding that the president came in, wanting to be post partisan, but the republicans really declared war on him on day one. so they've got a narrative out there, and there is no count counterveiling narrative for the democrats about, what is the great drama that is playing out in washington? only the republicans are telling that story. >> let's talk about the republicans. congressman, the republicans are feeling good right now after the victory of scott brown. what should they take away from that victory? because you have to notice that

he did not run cloaking himself in the republican mantle. what are the takeaways for republicans on how to turn that victory into other midterm election victories. >> he also, if you track his way to victory, it wasn't the traditional way. he didn't carry wealthy, western, usually republican town,s, it was really that 20% unemployment rate among blue-collar workers that swelled his ranks in town s where he probably wouldn't have closed the gap. it was an insider/outsider coalition. but the republicans see the table set this time. the democrats control everything. the republicans have not been complicit in ruling. so the democrats really own the economy, they own afghanistan at this point, and all the republicans have to say is, look, we need to send a message to bol, putobama, put a check o. now you have new jersey, massachusetts, all three states obama carried, republicans have made gains there. >> do they risk as overplaying

their hands if they come across as obstructionist to the president? >> republicans always risk overplaying their hands. that's the democrats best play, remind voters who republicans are. but so far it's advantage republicans and it seems to be increasing every day as democrats retire. >> jeff, very quickly, how concerned now are national democratic leaders that more retirements are coming, and what is this window? about a six-week window that we're going to know what the playing field looks like? >> i think there's a lot of concern, both in the house, and still in the senate. >> still a couple people? >> i think there are still a couple of people in the senate. again, it's why this reset of the state of the union speech is important and why people are looking for a sign that there is a path forward. i think, again, in terms of congressman davis saying the democrats now own the economy, the fact is that we came in with a terrible -- you know, a terrible mess on our hands. and there's a narrative there about who really does own the

economy. and i think what democrats want to hear is a more fulsome entry into that argument about who really -- whose economy is this. >> he's got a lot of things he's got to do with this state of the union. no wonder he has no public events today. he's trying to right this thing and fix it. tom davis, i know we're going to see you a lot on election days, primary days. we've got a primary in one week. thank you, illinois, for moving this up. jeff guerin, hope you'll come back as well. another nbc/"wall street journal" poll coming out tomorrow right before the state of the union. coming up next, what only can be called an all-out bling fest at the white house. plus, a price is right contestant puts a new meaning on, come on down. next on "the daily rundown." when it comes to italian sauce, some people prefer this jar. but more people prefer this sauce. winner of the blind taste test. the sweet and savory taste of prego. it's in there.

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before we go we'll take a

dip in the shallow end. turns out the woman who lost her balance and ripped a hole in a picasso painting slashed more than just the canvas on it. the cost of that trip, $65 million. the museum says they will be able to repair the six-inch tear in the painting the actor but it's worth half the $130 million it was worth last week. we know chuck's theory on this is, let me get this straight, clumsy people help collectibles go up in value. >> well, they do -- if mothers didn't throw away baseball cards, if parents didn't sell off those toys, we wouldn't have anything to collect. if people didn't accidentally throw away picassos. so this is actually a good thing. it makes other picassos now more valuable. this may be less valuable. >> that's a good glass half full analysis. on the topic of big money "the price is right" can get stressful apparently especially when you make it always way down to the showcase showdown. i'm a plinko man myself. watch what happens when a

contestant hears she might win a trip to minneapolis and a brand-new dodge. >> a brand-new car. >> are you okay? she's okay. she's all right. >> can i just tell you there she went. but, you know what, don't worry. she got up, she won. but i have to say, i was obsessed with the showcase showdown back in the day. i always wanted to see -- i thought if i went on there i'd win them both. i'd get within that $100 and win them both. >> and you just said come on down, i could tell that was a lifelong dream. re-enacted. >> i wish they would have journalists get to play "the price is right." hello, "price is right," call him. tracy ullman has a rachel maddow in her arsenal. take a look. >> okay. now this is the least favorite thing about having my own tv show, having to get made up.

i'm done. thank you very much. >> oh, no you don't. >> please, not too much powder blue eye shadow. the last makeup artist made me look like joan van ark. >> hello, rachel. >> hello, arianna. it's her fault. >> i haven't stopped talking since "morning joe" when i picked apart the health care debac debacle. >> this wasn't about kobe bryant. no chance. it was about educating the white house press corps on who the kardashians are. >> apparently the president already knew. >> chloe kardashian, of course, the wife of laker lamar odom. and the other part of this, first of all, all the wives came, diamonds everywhere. there were some major, major pieces of jewelry on display.

i'm guessing basketball sort of took a back seat here. chloe kardashian totally the star. >> i'm in support of that. >> i don't understand why she's famous. >> who does? that's "the daily rundown." david shuster up next. a good tuesday morning to you. i'm meteorologist bill karins with your business travel forecast. yesterday we had those horrible airport delays from areas of boston right down through new york and philly. today 100 times better. temperatures are mild. there's some clouds out there but it's going to be a pretty nice day. snow showers from detroit to chicago and out west a new storm moves into l.a.